IELTSwithJurabek

PASSAGE 1

Read the text and answer questions 1-13.

The Origins of Weather Forecasting

The world's first public weather forecast appeared in The Times newspaper over 150 years ago: the beginning of a service that gives everyone something to comment on. The pioneering forecast on August 1, 1861, was introduced with a deceptively simple heading: 'General weather probable during next two days.' But those few words started an ongoing controversy that still continues today - after all, everyone remembers the forecasts that go wrong, but rarely the ones that are right. The first forecast was the idea of Admiral Robert FitzRoy, head of the newly founded Meteorological Department, and one of Britain's greatest but least-known heroes. It was a brave undertaking, because in those days predicting the weather had gained a reputation similar to astrology or fortune-telling. The few people who attempted it had become a national joke when their forecasts inevitably went wrong.

FitzRoy was different, though. His background was faultless, most famously his captaining of the ship HMS Beagle on Charles Darwin's voyage around the world, which eventually led to the publication of Darwin's well-known book On the Origin of Species. When FitzRoy retired from active service as an admiral in Britain's navy, he was looking for a new direction. He subsequently secured a job as chief statistician at the Meteorological Department, part of the Board of Trade. Parliament had voted to set up and fund the Meteorological Department on June 30, 1854, to chart the safest sailing routes across the Atlantic Ocean. However, the British Government was not impressed with the idea of collecting weather reports and establishing a weather forecast, and the suggestion by one Member of Parliament for this was met with laughter from the other MPs.

FitzRoy was given a staff of three clerks in a small office in London, but he soon grew bored with the tedium of transcribing thousands of ships' reports. Instead, he focused on a much more pressing issue - the huge loss of life at sea from storms. This problem came to a head in 1859, when gale-force winds sank the ship named Royal Charter, with the loss of 430 lives, within sight of the shore. Even in those days when ships regularly sank in storms, the loss of the Royal Charter was considered a national tragedy. FitzRoy stirred up feelings even further when he wrote a letter to The Times newspaper explaining that the storm had been entirely predictable.

That same year, a total of 1,645 lives were lost off the British coast, and FitzRoy wrote repeatedly to The Times pushing for a storm-warning service for shipping. This was just the right moment for a national forecasting service. Knowledge of the weather was improving, barometer readings gave warning of approaching storms, and the invention of the electric telegraph and Morse code in 1844 gave instant communication for the first time.

So in February 1861, FitzRoy pressed ahead with a storm-warning service. Previous weather reports had been unreliable, but FitzRoy's innovation was to issue ships with standardised instruments which allowed for accurate weather reports. At exactly the same time each day the information was sent to him by telegraph, and he was able to draw up more detailed weather maps. The approach of an incoming storm could be recognised, and from London, FitzRoy could telegraph warnings to ports on the coast, where an ingenious system of flags was hoisted up high for passing ships to read. This represented the biggest advance in shipping safety after the introduction of the lifeboat, and in subsequent years the number of lives lost around Britain fell by about a third. FitzRoy became a hero to the fishing and maritime fleets. Encouraged by his storm-warning success, FitzRoy then started a public weather forecasting service. As he had a close connection with The Times, this newspaper introduced his daily forecast in August 1861. It attracted huge attention, including from Queen Victoria, who regularly sent messengers to FitzRoy's office to get a forecast for the sea crossing over the Solent to an island which she liked to visit off the south coast of England. He was also popular with ordinary fishermen, who were happy not to be out at sea in bad weather. The owners of fishing vessels, however, were not supportive of FitzRoy's forecasts, which often caused delays for them when bad weather was forecast.

Nevertheless, weather forecasting at that time was very difficult, and one mistake could result in much bad publicity. It wasn't long before some forecasts turned out wrong, and the letters pages of The Times were full of heated correspondence.

It is indisputable that FitzRoy was way ahead of his time, but it is only in recent years that he has been recognized as a towering figure in meteorology, with the honour of an area of sea being given his name in the shipping forecast (a radio broadcast of weather reports for the seas around Britain). His extraordinary determination to get forecasting established cost him dearly though, and he died prematurely. But his legacy lives on, because late in his life he published a book about weather forecasting which was recognized by other scientists to be well ahead of its time.